Talk:Catacombs

James, the west move counts as a direction for Chip to go in, and if Chip goes there, he loses a move, so it actually is 1/4. I don't actually know if the block can try to move L before U or L and you can still get through; maybe the math is more complicated than (1/4)^5. This seems to be the math as of now: (1/4 + (1/4 * 1/2)) * 1/4 = 3/32, or 6 times as likely as 1/16. 3/32 * 3/32 * 1/4 = 9/4096, or 455.1:1. Still pretty unlikely, though... Octavarium64 02:56, 3 June 2009 (UTC)

Assuming the block can stay on the square for 1 move (which I think it can), I got the following - (1/4)(1/4 + 1/4*1/4) * (1/4)(1/4 + 1/4*1/4) * (1/4), or (1/4)(5/16)(1/4)(5/16)(1/4), or 25/16384 (you got 36/16384), or 1 in 655.36. (for the blocks, there is a 1/4 chance of it directly going through or a (1/4)(1/4) chance of it trying L and then going through (trying L twice results in a loss of a move).

In any case, I say based on the complicity of the math and the unknown block factor, we just leave the math out of the page. I'm not really sure we're even calculating this right...1/450-650 is only around 5-7 times what the odds are for that 432 map of Blobnet. In addition, I've gotten 380 a couple times and both times it only took me around 50 tries, could we be missing something here? Jamesa7171 04:03, 3 June 2009 (UTC)